![]() Global observed inventories rebounded by 36.5 mb in August, as lower onshore inventories (-27.8 mb) were offset by a surge in oil on water (+64.3 mb).The country’s export revenues were down $3.2 bn to $15.3 bn. With less than two months to go before a ban on Russian crude oil imports comes into effect, EU countries have yet to diversify more than half of their pre-war import levels away from Russia. Shipments to the EU dropped by 390 kb/d m-o-m. Russian oil exports fell by 230 kb/d to 7.5 mb/d in September, down 560 kb/d from pre-war levels.Runs are now expected to increase by 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and 1.2 mb/d next year. ![]() Our forecasts for 4Q have been revised down by 340 kb/d and 720 kb/d, respectively, following demand downgrades and OPEC+ production cuts. Global refining activity is responding to the slowdown in demand and lower refinery margins, with 3Q22 runs coming in lower than expected.After a massive 2.1 mb/d boost from 2Q22 to 3Q22, growth is forecast to decelerate markedly, to 170 kb/d from 3Q22 to 4Q22, following the OPEC+ decision to cut official production targets by 2 mb/d from November – a 1 mb/d cut to actual output given the bloc’s underperformance vis-à-vis quotas. World oil supply rose by 300 kb/d in September to 101.2 mb/d, with OPEC+ providing over 85% of the gains.World oil demand is now forecast to average 101.3 mb/d in 2023. ![]() Demand growth has been reduced to 1.9 mb/d in 2022 and to 1.7 mb/d next year, down by 60 kb/d and 470 kb/d, respectively, from last month’s Report.
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